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Topics for Decision Analysis
- Decision making, art of making good decisions, building blocks of structured decision making, Decision trees, construction and use of decision trees , graphically representing and analysing risky decision problems
- Expected value decision criterion, probability theory, compute expected values, use of an expected value decision criteria for solving decision trees.
- Alternative decision criteria, different types of risk attitude , alternative decision criteria for incorporating risk attitude, utility theory, expected value and potential problems , utility and the elicitation of a utility function
- exponential utility function , modelling risk neutral, risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers, Dominance and sensitivity analysis, deterministic and stochastic dominance
- tornado diagrams, one-way and two-way sensitivity analysis of probability estimates, Value of information, information and decision making, value of perfect information, value of sample information,
- Multi-criteria decision making, analytical hierarchy process, comparing attributes, scoring alternatives, ranking alternatives, checking for consistency, decision making under uncertainty
- decision models for choice problem under uncertainty , form of influence diagrams , decision tree, probability , evaluating value of information, Risk attitude , utility theory , basic axiomatic foundations
- assessment of probability, time permitting, risk sharing , multi-attribute decision analysis.
- Decision Problems ,Objectives and Alternatives,Multi-Attribute Value Theory ,Weights Determination ,Incomplete Information,Bayes’ Theorem ,NPV and Real Options,Subjective Probabilities
- Heuristics and Biases ,Expected Utility Theory,Risk Attitudes,Prospect Theory ,Excel elements,Risk Solver,Risk Analysis Scenarios,Linear Programming,Transportation Problems,Distribution Problems
- Probability ,Statistics ,Decision Trees,Monte’ Carlo Methods,Reliability Models,Queuing Models