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Topics for Decision Analysis


decision making, art of making good decisions, building blocks of structured decision making, Decision trees, construction and use of decision trees , graphically representing and analysing risky decision problems, Expected value decision criterion, probability theory, compute expected values, use of an expected value decision criteria for solving decision trees.

  • Alternative decision criteria, different types of risk attitude , alternative decision criteria for incorporating risk attitude, utility theory, expected value and potential problems , utility and the elicitation of a utility function, exponential utility function , modelling risk neutral, risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers, Dominance and sensitivity analysis, deterministic and stochastic dominance
  • tornado diagrams, one-way and two-way sensitivity analysis of probability estimates, Value of information, information and decision making, value of perfect information, value of sample information, Multi-criteria decision making, analytical hierarchy process, comparing attributes, scoring alternatives, ranking alternatives, checking for consistency, decision making under uncertainty
  • decision models for choice problem under uncertainty , form of influence diagrams , decision tree, probability , evaluating value of information, Risk attitude , utility theory , basic axiomatic foundations , assessment of probability, time permitting, risk sharing , multi-attribute decision analysis.

 

Decision Problems
Objectives and Alternatives
Multi-Attribute Value Theory
Weights Determination
Incomplete Information
Bayes’ Theorem
NPV and Real Options
Subjective Probabilities
Heuristics and Biases
Expected Utility Theory
Risk Attitudes
Prospect Theory 

Excel elements
Risk Solver
Risk Analysis Scenarios
Linear Programming
Transportation Problems
Distribution Problems
Probability
Statistics
Decision Trees
Monte’ Carlo Methods
Reliability Models
Queuing Models

 

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